Will National get over 50% of the vote? NO

Will National + ACT + United Future get over 50% of the vote? YES - JUST.
(note: they may be able to get over 50% of the seats without needing 50% of the popular vote)

Will the Maori party be the king maker? NO

Will Labour + Green be greater then that of National? NO

Will Green get over 10%? NO

Will Labour get over 35%? NO

Will National get over 45%? YES - JUST

Will the Gap between the parties be less than 15%? YES

Will Ron Mark win Riumataka? NO

Will NZ First get 5%? NO

Will Roger Dogulas be back? YES

Will Labour lose Auckland Central? YES

Will the Maori Party win all 7 Maori Seats? NO

This post will be updated around every 30 minutes.

9pm - First upload of graphs. Features results over past hour since Advance Votes confirmed.

9.30pm - Last half hour has seen the gap closing again. Minor parties are beginning to rise.

10pm - Gap is still closing but probably not fast enough. Most results in now.

10.30pm - 95.8% in. National will be the new government.

11pm - 98.9% in. Didn’t go the way of the left at all. 50.04% went to National + Act + United Future so popular vote is differently for the right. The world may be heading left (Australia, United States) but NZ has gone right.

11.30pm - 99.9% in. HELEN CLARK HAS JUST RESIGNED AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY.

Major Party Percent:

Minor Party Percent:

Seats in the House:

Last night C4 ran a top 10 countdown of political songs.

One of the songs was French Letter 1982 by Herbs. When I saw this I immediately phoned a friend and said watch it now. French Letter is one of the most powerful and well known songs in NZ History. One of those songs that defines us.

French Letter is about the French Nucelar Testing in the Pacific at Moruroa Attol.

For me the testing in 1995 was a major issue. And thinking back it was probably my first involvement in Political Activism. At the time I was a seven year old in primary school and one of my friends was Ruby the daugther of Henk Haazen who served on the Rainbow Warrior when it was bombed in Auckland in 1985.

Something that I have never understood is why the French tested in the pacific. On one hand they claimed it was completely safe and on the other they stuck it on the other side of the world and not in their backyard.

Now coming back to the point of the post. What scares me is the person I phoned has no knowledge of French Nuclear Testing in the pacific. No knowledge of the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior in Auckland by French Secret Agents in 1985 (Read about that here: http://www.police.govt.nz/operation/wharf/ and here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior).

Now I didn’t expect this person to know the intimate details of these events. They didn’t spend their early childhood in NZ. But what did scare me is the statement why should I care, how does this apply to me?

This statement is as dangerous as the one made in 1995 by the then National Party leader, Don Brash, who stated that if elected the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone would be “Gone by lunchtime.”

At the time this caused an outrage. But I wonder if it would do the same now. Only three years down the track.

So why should we care?

Knowing your history is vital to any citizen or resident of a country. We learn from our personal mistakes and victories as does each and every country.

When we go forward we must remember our past, knowing where we came from, what defines us and what makes us us!

Look around Auckland and NZ there are a few things that you will see that clearly define us. The most obvious is War Memorials and RSA’s. Another would be the local pub. But the third would be our political activism. There are signs of it all around the place you just have to know where to look. Probably one of the most famous pieces is a series of paintings on KRoad done in the mid 1980s. If ever there was a clear demonstration of what NZ stood for and what it was about it is these sets of images:

Internationally, around the world, New Zealand is known for its stance on Human Rights and Environmental Protection. But it seems at home our young generation don’t know about the very things that define us. And that is sad.

You can read about the history of NZ Nuclear Free here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand%27s_nuclear-free_zone

Watch French Letter 1995

The electoral act prevents any comment on today’s election until after 7pm tonight in any media and that includes blogs. A whole day of no politics. What am I to do?

Finally some sense in the world.

I would be very reluctant to support the notion of Civil Unions but given how the world is heading and human rights and all that I suppose I would.

However not Marriage.

It is about the terminology. The words. The wording.

Marriage is between a Man and a Woman.

A Civil Union can give you the same rights if you want. But it is the words that matter. They are sacred.

Just my two cents anyway.

Saw a show earlier tonight and quite funnyly I would probably be in general principals closer to Republican than Democrat. However at the sametime I consider myself left. A conservative leftie? Is there such a thing?

Will National get over 50% of the vote?

Will National + ACT + United Future get over 50% of the vote?
(note: they may be able to get over 50% of the seats without needing 50% of the popular vote)

Will the Maori party be the king maker?

Will Labour + Green be greater then that of National?

Will Green get over 10%?

Will Labour get over 35%?

Will National get over 45%?

Will the Gap between the parties be less than 15%?

Will Ron Mark win Riumataka?

Will NZ First get 5%?

Will Roger Dogulas be back?

Will Labour lose Auckland Central?

Will the Maori Party win all 7 Maori Seats?

Tomorrow is anything but certain.

This is a summary graph of the political polls over the past three years. Look at the recent end. National is dropping. But so is Labour. Who is rising? The Greens and Act. What does that mean?

a) The minor parties matter!

b) A vote for Act or National will result in a right wing government. A vote for the Greens or Labour will be a left wing Government.

The choice is yours! This election is not all over. It is not a done and dusted result. It is wide open and your vote matters.

Rock the Vote. November 8 2008.