From around 6pm AEST tonight I will be live blogging the Australian Election results in this post.

Updates will be added to the post as the results come in.

My commentary will be from a Kiwi’s perspective with the focus primarily on New South Wales but also a bit of Queensland and Victoria.

Stay Tuned for more.

5.20pm update – Seven News have exit polls by Roy Morgan. First seat Herbet near Townsville is showing a swing to Labor however exit polls are not accurate and with a sample of only 300 people the result is within the margin of error (which 7 News failed to tell the viewers).

5.30pm – Seven News have their second exit poll. Lindsay to go Liberal with a 15% swing. Again massive swing and most likely because the sample size is so small.

5.40pm – Third exit poll. La Trobe, in Melbourne’s South East. ALP to win with 5% swing.

7pm – 7 News is reporting that the swing is going against Labor but instead of going to Liberal it is going towards the Greens. Still very early days with only around 1% of the votes counted.

7.30pm – It looks like The Greens may pick up their first ever House of Representatives seat by winning the electorate of Melbourne. (This is an early prediction). Predictions also showing ALP have lost two seats nationally, and LNP have gained two, so neck and neck.

8pm – With 3 million votes counted nationally on two party preferred LNP is leading 50.5% to 49.5%, so neck and neck, ALP may lose 13 seats on latest predictions. Election is very much too close to call. Sydney may also go Greens, and possibly Denison in Tasmania. Result may not be known tonight.

8.30pm – Greens have almost definitely won Melbourne. Candidate just gave a victory speech. Nationally with a little over 5 million votes ALP is now leading 50.3% to 49.7%.

9pm – A few victory speeches over the last half hour, but still too close to call in many seats.

9.30pm – Still heading for a hung parliament.

9.50pm – Greens have 12% in the Senate. Looks like 9 senators in the new Parliament. “We are seeing the birth of a new political movement” – Bob Brown, Greens Leader. “It is time we moved to proportional representation”

10pm – 7 News is calling it currently at 73 seats each, below the 76 needed to govern. With 3 independents + 1 Green.

10.15pm – Can a government be formed? Labor + Greens will not be enough to govern without two independents on current predictions.

11.15pm – Gillard takes the stage (before Abbott), “Too close to call”, “Every vote must be counted”

11.30pm – Channel 7′s panel is saying Labor lost the plot when they failed to have a backbone and pass the ETS in March or go to a Double D Election over the issue.

12am – Abbott has addressed the Liberal Party faithful. At end of the night hung parliament with 72 seats Labor, 71 seats LNP declared.

In October this year New Zealanders will vote for their representatives on local city councils, regional councils and health boards. But in order to vote you must first be enrolled.

Every vote counts, yours just as much as anyone else’s. It is a shame that voter turnout in local body elections over the last 20 years has dropped from almost 90% to a little over 30%. So make sure your able to have your say this year, click the image below to check that you are enrolled to vote.

It is amazing how much technology can change the shape of history, can shape our future, and can shape the outcome of elections. A little over a year ago we saw the election of Barack Obama to the United States Presidency off the back of a massive campaign using new media. Now thanks to two televised election debates we are seeing a mini revolution in UK politics. The only problem is this mini revolution may be the biggest political revolution that never happens because with the UK still using the First Past the Post voting system the party that wins the most number of votes may fail to govern.

Like Australia, the United States, and many other countries the UK has traditionally had two major political parties, the left leaning Labour Party, and the right leaning Conservatives. For a few parliamentary terms the Labour Party will rule and once the voters get sick of them the Conservatives will rule until the cycle reverses. The way in which these governments are elected comes down to local electorates rather than voting for the party you want to win you vote for your local MP. The party that has the most number of electorate MPs elected will get to govern. This is different from NZ politics where under MMP you have two votes one for your local MP and one for the party you wish to govern with the parliament being made up with a mixture of local MPs and party list MPs.

Now the reason a mini revolution has occurred in England is because for the first time Nick Clegg, the leader of the Social Democrats a small minority party, has been included in two televised leaders debates alongside the leaders of the both the Conservative and Labour parties. And in both of these debates Clegg has won. This has seen the Social Democrats rocket up the polls on the popular vote to a position where they are beating Labour and in some poles even leading the Conservatives. This has also thrown the May 6 election wide open with the real possibility of a hung parliament.

The biggest problem with all this analysis though is it may amount to nothing all because of the way FPP operates. The NZ Herald puts it this way:

The really surprising thing about the Nick Clegg surge is that almost nothing has changed.

That may seem an odd thing to say after 10 days in which Labour has been forced into third place in the opinion polls and the Liberal Democrats have broken through for the first time since the formation of the Social Democratic Party nearly three decades ago.

But the way votes translate into seats means that, unless the Lib Dems get up to 36 or 37 per cent of the vote, they remain the third party in seats.

And while Clegg’s party remains the third party in the House of Commons, the outcome of the election is decided by the gap between the Conservatives and Labour.

The shape of politics will be transformed on May 6. That may be the beginning of the end for the Labour Party. And yet the outcome of the election remains surprisingly unchanged.

The reason is that Clegg’s surge has been uncannily even-handed in its effect on the other two parties. The Conservatives have fallen 4.5 points in the polls, on average, since the first debate, and the Labour drop has been the same.

The gap between the two is therefore unchanged, at about 6.5 points, which suggests the Tories would be the largest party in a hung parliament – which is where the country was before the Cleggshell was dropped on this campaign.

The voters are likely to end up, therefore, with David Cameron as prime minister, leader of a minority Conservative government.

All of this screams out that the who democratic process of FPP is wrong, for a party to be able to gain the most number of popular votes and not govern is wrong, for a party to be able to govern on only 30% support is wrong. And focusing on New Zealand for a second this is the exact reason why we should not move back towards FPP or change away from MPP. It is often argued that MMP gives small parties too much power, but I would rather have good, cross party support for well written laws than be ruled by a minority forcing their sole thoughts on the nation.

This morning the Green Party posted a good video about the problems with the UK election to their blog:

The final results of the November 8 election were released this afternoon after the 250,000 special votes were counted.

In the end National lost one MP and the Greens gained one MP. Labour were only 40 votes off getting another MP and National lossing a second MP.

It is interesting to note the large differences between the election night results and the special votes.

Overall National lost 0.52% of the total votes once the specials were included. The majority of this was transferred to Labour (0.22%) and the Greens (0.29%) who gained. What is more interesting is the party vote % of only the specials.

If the specials were the election results (i.e. the Nov 8 votes didn’t count) the make up of the government could be quite different.

National polled 4.84% lower, Labour 2.05% higher, Greens 2.70% higher, Maori 1.38% higher. It is interesting to note that those who casts specials – i.e. those away from home, or overseas appear to be more left leaning then the majority of the country.

After running some more calculations this is how the results would of ended up if only specials counted. As you can see the overhang is gone. And the Maori Party becomes the King Maker. We could have had a Labour Government back.

National Government: Nat 52 + Act 4 + UF 1 + Maori 5 = 62/120.
Labour Government: Lab 45 + Prog 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 63/120

The funny thing is the special votes seem to more accurately reflect the polls in the lead up to the election then the actual election result.

Will National get over 50% of the vote? NO

Will National + ACT + United Future get over 50% of the vote? YES – JUST.
(note: they may be able to get over 50% of the seats without needing 50% of the popular vote)

Will the Maori party be the king maker? NO

Will Labour + Green be greater then that of National? NO

Will Green get over 10%? NO

Will Labour get over 35%? NO

Will National get over 45%? YES – JUST

Will the Gap between the parties be less than 15%? YES

Will Ron Mark win Riumataka? NO

Will NZ First get 5%? NO

Will Roger Dogulas be back? YES

Will Labour lose Auckland Central? YES

Will the Maori Party win all 7 Maori Seats? NO

This post will be updated around every 30 minutes.

9pm – First upload of graphs. Features results over past hour since Advance Votes confirmed.

9.30pm – Last half hour has seen the gap closing again. Minor parties are beginning to rise.

10pm – Gap is still closing but probably not fast enough. Most results in now.

10.30pm – 95.8% in. National will be the new government.

11pm – 98.9% in. Didn’t go the way of the left at all. 50.04% went to National + Act + United Future so popular vote is differently for the right. The world may be heading left (Australia, United States) but NZ has gone right.

11.30pm – 99.9% in. HELEN CLARK HAS JUST RESIGNED AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY.

Major Party Percent:

Minor Party Percent:

Seats in the House:

Will National get over 50% of the vote?

Will National + ACT + United Future get over 50% of the vote?
(note: they may be able to get over 50% of the seats without needing 50% of the popular vote)

Will the Maori party be the king maker?

Will Labour + Green be greater then that of National?

Will Green get over 10%?

Will Labour get over 35%?

Will National get over 45%?

Will the Gap between the parties be less than 15%?

Will Ron Mark win Riumataka?

Will NZ First get 5%?

Will Roger Dogulas be back?

Will Labour lose Auckland Central?

Will the Maori Party win all 7 Maori Seats?

Tomorrow is anything but certain.

This is a summary graph of the political polls over the past three years. Look at the recent end. National is dropping. But so is Labour. Who is rising? The Greens and Act. What does that mean?

a) The minor parties matter!

b) A vote for Act or National will result in a right wing government. A vote for the Greens or Labour will be a left wing Government.

The choice is yours! This election is not all over. It is not a done and dusted result. It is wide open and your vote matters.

Rock the Vote. November 8 2008.